After many months of hard work, the big medical market after the epidemic rebounded is once again a "short-lived"

August 06, 2021

On August 3, the three major A-share indexes opened lower across the board in the morning trading, and the fluctuations continued during the period. Previously, many popular curtain stocks such as lithium batteries, energy storage, and new energy vehicles continued to weaken. The pharmaceutical sector continued to be active in the afternoon, which reversed the previous weakness. , Many concept stocks led by the anti-epidemic concept rose against the trend. In the afternoon of the same day, more than 2,200 stocks in the two cities showed a downward trend, but 90% of listed pharmaceutical companies in the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry showed an upward trend, and the transaction volume reached a new high. However, today's pharmaceutical market is down again. It is expected that the market will go low. The bio-vaccine sector has also not been spared.

However, many investors and companies are more concerned about whether the pharmaceutical industry has the conditions to rebound. While the new crown epidemic once again affects people's hearts, can the vaccine industry generally take off again before entering?

Large amounts of funds have flowed in, and vaccines have become delicious

Yesterday, Zhifei Bio, Fosun Pharma, Cansino and other new crown vaccines rose sharply, and 38 vaccine concept stocks had a full daily limit. Among them, Zhifei Bio directly obtained more than 700 million main funds and became the largest main fund in the pharmaceutical industry. Inflow scenarios, although today's market conditions have changed, according to relevant experts’ analysis, it is due to the risk aversion of many small investors. The positive factors in the epidemic environment have not changed in nature. Most of the new crown-related companies may even use the epidemic to rebound. , Increase revenue and profit again.

From 0-24:00 on August 3, there were 96 newly confirmed cases in 31 provinces (38 in Jiangsu, 15 in Hunan, followed by the others). Zhangjiajie, the center of the storm, has reported a total of 16 confirmed cases since the 29th. Public officials have also been held accountable for this reason. The Commission for Discipline Inspection of Zhangjiajie City, Hunan Province also officially issued the "Notice on the Accountability of Public Officials Ineffective in the Prevention and Control of the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic." Among them, Xu Xionghui, Xiang Ciyong, Tan Jianxin, Hu Huajian, Zhang Bibo, Deng Xiuli, Xiang Yanchu, Peng Bin, Qin Jinting, Xie Guixiang from the government, and Deng Huabin, Hu Guancheng, Huang Hong, Deng Shaoyong, Cai Zhang from the hospital, etc. Everyone is punished more or less. Now, while strengthening the two-pronged approach of nucleic acid testing and vaccination in many provinces, cities and regions across the country, vaccines have once again become the "people's hope", and the "new crown vaccine concept" has become the hope of investment.

The funding target is obvious, and various industries are busy with hot spots

It is true that the only way to fight the epidemic is a vaccine. No matter how the virus mutates, the vaccine will ultimately work. For the ruthless capital market, who is more interested in knowing who can produce a vaccine against the mutated virus? Who can benefit from this rebound of the epidemic? According to US media reports, Pfizer increased the price of its COVID-19 vaccine by more than 25%, and Moderna's price by more than 10%. These companies will generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue this year because they have signed new agreements with countries that are eager to ensure increased vaccine supply in response to the spread of the highly contagious delta virus variant. At the same time, since the English region in the United Kingdom was fully unblocked on July 19, all social isolation restrictions were lifted. The originally expected rebound did not occur. The reason is that it is as high as 88.6% (1 shot) and 72.5% (2 shots). Vaccination rate. In contrast, China today seems to have a staggering number of vaccinations, but in fact the proportion of vaccinations is far from enough, and there is a long way to go. This shows that the supply and demand relationship of vaccines still has great certainty. As for the fact that the existing vaccines that some people are worried about cannot fight the mutant virus, it is pure nonsense. As everyone knows, many people are lining up behind!Up to now, the domestically approved vaccines are the recombinant new crown vaccine of Cansino Bio; the new crown inactivated vaccine (vero cell) of Sinopharm Wuhan Biopharmaceutical Research Institute; the new crown inactivated vaccine of Kexing Zhongwei (vero Cell); Sinopharm China Bio-Beijing's new crown inactivated vaccine (vero cell); Fosun Pharma and BioNTech jointly developed an mRNA vaccine; Zhifei Bio's recombinant new coronavirus vaccine (CHO cell). In terms of benefits alone, the lower the vaccination rate for these vaccine companies in China, the greater their market space. Zhifei Biology: The clinical phase 3 of the new crown vaccine is still in a blind state, and it is expected that the results of the interim analysis will be obtained in the near future. Mycobacterium vaccae for preventive use has been approved, and the commercial value of EC+ Mycobacterium vaccae for preventive use can be expected. In terms of pipelines, 4-valent influenza, 23-valent pneumonia, and MRC-5 wild vaccines are expected to be produced in H2, and PCV15 is in phase 3 clinical; Can Sino: Jointly develop a recombinant new coronavirus vaccine (adenovirus) with the Institute of Bioengineering, Academy of Military Medicine, Academy of Military Sciences The carrier) is used to prevent the disease caused by the new coronavirus infection, relying on its success to achieve profitability in H1, it is expected that the inhaled form of the new crown vaccine is expected to obtain phased results at the end of Q3. In terms of pipeline, MCV2 has been approved, and it is expected that MCV4 will be approved and landed in the near future, and PCV13 is in Phase 3 clinical trials.
Watson Bio: The new crown vaccine cooperating with Abbio is the fastest in the mRNA type. The new crown vaccine (mRNA) phase III clinical trial applied for will be updated on July 21 and shows the "pre-registration" status, and the phase III clinical trial will be launched soon test. At the same time, in terms of products, PCV13 is in the stage of heavy volume and is expected to grow substantially during the year; in terms of pipelines, HPV-2 is in registration, and MCV4 is in phase 3 clinical trials. At present, it has formed a product pipeline with excellent structure and rich varieties, and it is in the leading position in the industry in the two major subdivisions of new vaccines and antibody drugs. Fosun Pharma: Both phase 1 and phase 2 bridging trials of the new crown vaccine have been completed and are in the communication and production phase. The first phase is operating as an agency model, and the second phase has entered localized production. The commercial value can be expected. Unnamed Medicine: The subsidiary holds 26.91% of the equity of Beijing Kexing Biological Products Co., Ltd. On August 3rd, Yang Guang, Chief Commercial Officer of Kexing Biotechnology, introduced that Kexing's children's vaccine is suitable for people aged 3 to 17 years old. It has been approved for emergency use in China. Of course, in addition to vaccines, there are many companies in the entire A-share market that have been closely linked to the epidemic for a long time. Some people concluded: "The epidemic will not go out, and the market will continue."

Summarize

To sum up, there was a large inflow of funds yesterday, and more outflows the next day. The medical market seems to be a dying struggle to most people, but as mentioned above, the basic concept of "the epidemic will not go out and the market will continue" is generally The above has not changed, and short-term fluctuations are normal. However, from the perspective of the overall increase in the various concept components, in the days to come, we will always pay attention to the dynamics of the epidemic to prevent the profits of related companies from falling sharply after the epidemic is over, causing the market value to plummet.

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Ms. Yi

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